Predicting the potential geographical distribution of Ageratina adenophora in China using equilibrium occurrence data and ensemble model

Invasive alien plants (IAPs) pose a significant threat to the ecological environment and agricultural production in China. Ageratina adenophora is one of most aggressive IAPs China poses serious socioeconomic threats. Estimating distribution pattern A. can provide baseline data for preventing damage by this weed. In present study, based on equilibrium occurrence related environmental variables, we used an ensemble model predict under climate change. Our findings indicated that true skill statistic (TSS), area receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC), Cohen’s Kappa (KAPPA) values were 0.925, 0.993, 0.936, respectively. The prediction results more accurate than those single models. Temperature variables had impact potential geographical (PGD) total, high, moderate suitability habitat areas 153.82 × 10 4 , 92.13 21.04 km 2 respectively, accounting 16.02, 9.60, 2.19% Chinese mainland area, PGD current mainly located southwestern southeastern China, which are tropical subtropical zone. high-suitability decreased future scenarios, changing moderately suitable habitats Southwest currently saturated will spread change future. More attention should be paid early warning monitoring prevent its further spread.